| Results
43 people bid 1
5 people bid 2
1 person bid 3
29 people
bid Nil
Total responses: 78 |
Analysis by
Crapstorm
There is an immediate temptation to bid Nil with this hand,
because it really sucks. However, such a bid is very unlikely to
succeed due to the four Spades. Four-Spade Nils, no matter what
people tell you, are long shots. To cover you, your partner needs at
least four Spades himself. 66.3% of the time, he won't get that
many. Even if he does get four, he may be forced or compelled to
play one while trying to cover you. For example, say the player to
your left leads the 2H at a point when your partner has no more
Hearts. The odds of even the best four-Spade Nil (5432) succeeding
are less than one in three. In practice, much fewer succeed. Unless
you are desperate to outbid your opponents, which is certainly not
the situation here, don't do it.
The correct bid is 1. There is nothing other than the four Spades
to count on. |
