This is a high stakes hand, and a difficult one to analyze due to
all the human factors. So, I will not attempt to compute
probabilities. If you bid nil...
Case 1: Your opponent bids Nil. The player to your right
will be in the disadvantaged seat, likely forced to lead repeatedly
taking all four bags. Both Nils will probably succeed - although
yours is a bit dodgy - and you will keep your lead (unless they had
the balls to Double).
Case 2: Your opponent bids 1 or more. Your partner has
indicated a strong hand, and the player to your right, even
stronger. These are generally good conditions for a Nil, but your
hand has two serious weaknesses: Clubs and Diamonds. You might get
set. If you do, the opponents will take the lead.
If you do not bid nil...
Case 1: Your opponent bids Double Nil. This is more likely
to happen if you bid 2 or 3. Given the bids so far, and the strength
of your hand, the DN will probably succeed. You do not have a great
setting hand. If you bid 2 or 3, you will have trouble making your
bid and putting pressure on the Nil at the same time.
Case 2: Your opponent bids Nil. He takes caution and looks
at his cards first, then decides he can do it. That probably means
it is a very secure Nil. You may want to set the player to your
right instead.
Case 3: Your opponent bids 1 or more. Your hand is nearly
certain to take one trick. You are going to be in for a fight if you
bid 2. Unbalanced bidding implies unbalanced card distribution, and
a lot of cutting can be expected. Still, 2 is a respectable bid. The
score will not change much unless someone gets set.
In conclusion, I think Nil, 1 and 2 are all good bids here. If
you know how aggressive your partner or your opponents tend to be,
you can make a sounder decision.
