| Results
16 people bid 2
55 people bid 3
5 people bid 4
Total
responses: 76 |
Analysis by
Crapstorm
This would be an awesome Bridge hand. Unfortunately, we're
playing Spades, and you don't have any. You do, however, have some
powerful non-trump cards. Here are the odds that the card
distribution will allow you to win a specified number of tricks in
each suit assuming that (1) your opponents have ample Spades to cut
whenever possible, and (2) all non-Spade suits will be lead before
your opponents have a chance to "tune" their hands by discarding:
|
1 trick |
2 tricks |
3 tricks |
| Clubs |
98.3% |
85.6% |
49.5% |
| Diamonds |
99.1% |
| Hearts |
21.5% |
The mean number of tricks to expect from this hand is therefore
3.54. Should you round up or down? The combined bids from other
players is 9. One of those is for the AH, and another is probably
for the KD. One or two are surely based on voids or singletons in
Hearts, given that you have eight. The remaining five or six are
probably based on Spades. That's more than usual, so expect a lot of
cutting. Play it safe and bid 3. If you bid less, you will get
sandbagged. If you bid more, you will likely get
set. |
