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Spades survey #10

The score is 396 to 321 for your opponents. The bidding started from your left: 5, 3, 2. What would you bid?

Results

4 people bid 1
39 people bid 2
43 people bid 3
4 people bid 4
1 person bid Nil

Total responses: 91

Analysis by Crapstorm

This is a handful of maybes. The KC might take a trick, unless the opponents cut it with a Spade or finesse the QC. There is roughly a 90% chance they won't be able to. In Diamonds, you could take one trick or more, or you could take none. There is a 54% chance that each of your opponents have 2 or more Diamonds, but if they don't, your Diamonds may flop. In Spades, you are almost guaranteed one trick; it would take a very unlucky split and some savvy playing by your opponents to deprive you of it. On the other hand, you could end up with two Spade tricks if the AS and KS come out at the same time. You also have a mediocre shot at cutting a Club or Heart trick, given your two doubletons.

Add up all the maybes, and you have just over two and a half tricks. Look at the score. If the opponents make their bid this round, you will need a miracle next one. You need to set them. Bid 3. 2 could deprive you of 10 crucial points.

Questions or comments? E-mail crapstorm@yahoo.com


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