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Only a Guess.

North
9 8 3 2
2
7 6 5 2
8 6 5 4
West
A J 10 5
10 5 3
10 4
K 10 9 3
East
K 7 4
9 7 6 4
A K 9 3
Q 7
South
Q 6
A K Q J 8
Q J 8
A J 2

The bidding:
South West North East
3 3 nil 3

South led the A

You'd have to bet on North to make his nil, even with four spades. But a wrong guess at Trick Two would cost him dearly at Trick Thirteen.

North seemed the favorite as South ran off five straight hearts. West did not dare ruff because North would underruff. At Trick Two, North had to guess what to discard on the hearts. He had to pick the suit in which West held the fewest cards. Unfortunately, North chose clubs.

As South ran his hearts, West followed three times and discarded two diamonds. East ruffed the fifth heart and returned a low diamond. West had guessed from the bidding and North's discards that this was a four-spade nil, and knew he had to ruff without being underruffed. West ruffed the diamond and, when North had to follow, it was almost over. The defenders played three rounds of spades and North could take his spade trick whenever he wanted.


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