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Percentage Play.

North
8 3
A 10 9 4 2
6 2
Q 10 8 2
West
Q 9 7
K 5
J 8 7 5
J 9 4 3
East
A K 10 2
Q 8 7 3
A 4 3
A 7
South
J 6 5 4
J 6
K Q 10 9
K 6 5

The bidding:
West North East South
2 nil 5 3

West led the 4
Spades, like all games that involve some luck, have certain plays that are based on probabilities. As North, what card do you play at Trick One?

We have all gone nil with holdings similar to North's club suit. When West played a low club, North was faced with a familiar problem. He played the deuce, unwilling to risk immediate defeat in case Partner could not cover one of his high or middle cards. East won the ace and returned the suit. South won the king, collecting the jack and queen, and started the diamonds. East won the ace, put West on lead with a heart, and the "killing third round" of clubs destroyed North.

I have trouble convincing people that North's correct play at Trick One is the eight. It is 'correct' in the sense that it is a percentage play; i.e., on those hands where North's first card will make a difference, the deuce will lose more often than the eight. Few players accept this advice. The problem is that if the play of the eight loses at Trick One, the nil bidder will feel very foolish. Thus, most Spades players with the North cards would rather go with the lower percentage play of the deuce.


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