The Public Responds:
Dustin:
All it would take for the set is two spade leads.
Mateo A. Romero:
I think East and West could have pulled spades and set up some of their long
suits and kept South from getting a ruff in.
Purple Cow:
The setting play is simple. East or West must push spades. Two quick spade
leads will limit N/S to 4 winners. Two spades, a diamond, and a club. They
are entitled to nothing else. Alas South made the bid fufulling trick by
ruffing the 3rd round of hearts.
Yes, once again the star is our old friend, the spade lead. Whether you
pull them or push them, two early rounds of spades defeats North/South. But
which player, East or West, should make the move, and how soon? How does one
know? Ruffkid gives us the 'when' part by examining all 52 cards:
Ruffkid:
It's easy to look at this hand and see 9 winners for E/W, maybe ten if a club
can be pitched on hearts...
Anytime ur after 9 tricks or more and 4 or more spades are in each hand
spades can be pulled by either hand, this hand was not some exercise in
cross-ruff theory so a a spade should hit the table at Trick 3.
It's not so easy at the table, however. We must examine the clues.
Our next panelist waits for further information.
Brandon:
After round 2 it's obvious that N/S has the Diamond Ace.
After round 5, East has played  KQ so the A is
with EW (E knows W has it). East has an entry into West's
hand with his 2. But the odds are N/S can trump so
hold off playing more hearts.
Round 6 -- MISTAKE! To prevent cutting, put that long
spade suit to use. Lead a low spade.
It turns out that N/S will always get two spade tricks,
but you want to prevent them getting a cut for a third
spade trick to replace the lost Diamond.
Round 8 was the clincher. it gave N/S the third spade
trick via a cut.
This prudent approach works just fine on this particular deal
because there is no urgency for the spade lead. As long as it comes
instead of a third round of hearts, E/W will do just fine. On other deals,
the early spade lead is crucial, and Spades players must learn to recognize
these situation. Purple Cow offers sound advice:
Purple Cow:
I'd place the bulk of the blame with East. He has the 5-card spade suit,
and should be anxious to lead it. Especially when he hasn't been forced to
ruff already. When East wins Trick 3, he should automatically be reaching
for a spade to lead. This doesn't require careful analysis or card reading,
really. Unless something clearly indicates otherwise, a player who is dealt
five spades should lead spades.
West also could have chosen to lead a spade at Trick 3, but with only the
4-card holding, and having already cut once, and not knowing where partner's
values are (except that they're not in diamonds), this play is unclear at
best.
The situation is not at all unclear to CapnCmbk, whose style
of play matches our own (even though it causes our partners to
frantically pray for the game to end quickly so they can re-pard).
CapnCmbk:
West should have led spades out of the chute, seeing his pard's 4-bid,
South's 1-bid, and knowing North or South held the Ace of diamonds and
probably couldn't make it good (which they undoubtedly counted as a trick).
Knowing the opponents are now down a trick they counted, E/W should
agressively pursue the set. After spades are out they make 4 or 5 good
hearts depending on transportation. Still enough for the set. N/S get one
club, one diamond and two spades.
Dustin:
Why not test the spade suit early and see how the hand turns out? Usually
this tactic will allow you to either set or bag depending on what cards show
up. West should have led a spade at his first opportunity -- after all, his
side has bid an 8-bid (an alert to lead trumps). Perhaps West can be
forgiven for not leading a trump at Trick 3 because the situation wasn't
clear (even though his side did bid 8!). But, if we forgive West, we
certainly cannot forgive East for not leading a spade on Trick 4. With
those spades, you shouldn't be allowed to play if you don't lead trumps.
Yes, of course! North and East each bid 4, but West knows two of
North's count cards were in diamonds. If anyone has long spades, it should be
West's partner. Since North has already lost a count card, West should lead a
spade after trumping at Trick 2.
So E/W miss the set and the score is at 499-444, East/West leading.
Which side do you consider the favorite?
Purple Cow:
As the hand played out, one would certainly have to consider N/S to now be
the favorite. E/W will have to play perfectly on the next hand to have a
chance. It would have been much easier to simply take the extra bag THIS
hand, and also set N/S in the process.
CapnCmbk:
I would say North/South should be the favorite based on the score assuming
equal skill levels.
Dustin:
I think North/South are now the favorite.
Ruffkid:
I will bet the bank on N/S winning this match after the play on that deal by
E/W!
Is that a safe bet? Just because they botched a spade lead? Let's
find out what happened. We turn to Brandon, who provides us with
the sequel:
Brandon:
In the next round E/W use their bag avoidance strategy and pull it off to
avoid any bags and win the game. E/W laughs at N/S, “You novices! We are
experts and avoid bags and usually win. You guys are too aggressive.
Imagine, trying to set someone on an 11 bid!”. N/S go away grumbling about
losing to a pair of 'fair players who think they are experts.' But luck is
part of the game. E/W split up and play on Yahoo and the Zone and both end
up parding Brandon. He can never set the opponents because his
partner is dumping winners. He has a rotten time and starts looking for
good pards. He makes his way to the Master Spades website …
Alas, there is not always justice in Spades, just as in real life.
Let us file away this case and move on to the next one.
Exhibit #11b. Strategy
The Play:
1. South leads Q: 10, 5, K. East wins.
2. East leads  6: A, K, J. South wins.
3. South leads 8: 6, 7, J. East wins.
4. East leads 4:  3, A, 3. South wins.
5. South leads A. 9, 4, 5. South wins.
6. South leads K. 7, 2, J. South wins.
7. South leads 8. 6, 10, Q. East wins.
8. East leads 3. 2, 4, 5. North wins.
North's nil is sunk. Was it due to bad bidding or play, a bad guess,
or was it just bad luck? Who made the worst bid/play?
Submit your e-mail comments to:
You Be the Judge
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| Score |
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N/S: 112
E/W: 121
Dlr: East |
42
7532
 102
J10875 |
976
A106
A84
KQ94 |
![[ ]](table.gif) |
QJ5
KJ94
KQ53
63 |
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AK1083
Q8
J976
A2
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South West North East
5
3
nil
3
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The Public Responds:
The second case appears to be a straightforward example of
questionable nil coverage... But there's a hook to it, as two panelists
-- and only two -- point out.
Dustin:
Now for the tricky hand.
Purple Cow:
HAHAHAHA! I knew this was coming!
What's the joke? Exhibit #11b is the continuation of last week's
You Be the Judge. For those who just joined us, go back and review
Exhibit #10b before reading on. We will wait.
* * *
Welcome back. Now do you see it? South holds identical cards in #10b
and #11b. Even the cards played to the first few rounds are the same. And
on both deals South must make the same critical decision at Trick 4. Should
he cut the heart and run the spades, or should he discard his baby club?
Last week he threw the 2 and it failed. The panel took him to task for
that play. "Cut that trick!" they told South. "Don't discard the 2, trump
it!" But THIS time...
Silus Aureus:
I don't see why South didn't dump his 2 on the 4th trick.
Other than that, everything else looks fine.
CapnCmbk:
South ruined the nil when he didn't throw off the 2 when the 4 was
led. North played the 5 on the first heart lead, then the 7 on the
second showing the suit was safe, hence no reason for North to cut.
Sigh. Poor South. It appears the panel simply won't let him be
right. And if Trick 4 is not enough, take another look at Trick 2. Nobody
batted an eyelash last week at South's play of the A on East's 6, but...
Brandon:
The mistake is on Round 2, South should have
played the 2, not the Ace. That was the only
danger to the nil.
Ruffkid:
Two dumb blunders by two teammates on Trick 2 lol... Duck the
6! Easy play to make!
Also, for pete's sake do not play the jack of clubs when all of ur clubs
are approx the same size now... Drop the freaking five to induce
protection in the opps eyes... ur clubs are virtually all the same size
once u see the six... Guilt... for the duckee and guilt for not
falsecarding the the five!
Poor South! No matter how South plays, our panel has made up its mind
to tell him he shoulda done it the other way. “Gimme a break!” wails
South. And lo, he finds the Spades gods have placed the brake pedal of a
1976 Volvo in front of him.
Before reaching a verdict for South, we must decide if we can honestly
place any blame on North for his J. Ruffkid wants the 5, but
Dustin prefers the Jack (so do we):
Dustin:
I believe Jay made an interesting point. Should North have played a mid card
to show safety with the first club holding (last week's deal) and perhaps
his highest club for this holding? This may have helped guide South to the
correct action.
This has been fun, but there is a serious purpose to presenting the same
hand twice. Every Spades player is constantly faced with guesses. No one can
guess right all the time, and no critic should fault a player who makes a
wrong guess. And really, that's all there is to it. South made some
unfortunate guesses, both last week and this time too. Let's hear from
the two panelists who recognized the situation.
Dustin:
Well, I think your point is well taken. South has to make a guess.
I think if South has to make a guess on probability alone, he made the right
play by trumping. Even though I don't have any mathematical tables at hand,
I think there's a slightly better chance that he's set in diamonds rather
than clubs. Thus, the nil was sunk due to bad luck in my opinion.
Purple Cow:
I'll use my answer from last week! Since the hand looks familiar,
so should the analysis! [edits in bold]
[The following text is taken from last week's responses, and changed
as indicated.]
I'm going to call this a unlucky guess. But there's a lot going
on here.
North completed a nil echo on tricks 1 and 3, assuring his partner of
complete safety in hearts. The 4 lead at Trick 4, and South knows partner
has both the 3 and the 2 left (or he wouldn't have given the nil echo
signal). So does he pitch his club, or trump and start spades?
Clearly the winning play here was to start spades pitch the
club. Partner will get does not need a diamond
discard on the 2nd spade lead, and the nil walks home. South's 2 is
never a huge factor. North's clubs are [not] solid as
they come, but South has no way to know this.
I don't have any mathematical proof to back this up, but I think
trumping and getting the spade suit rolling is the better play more often
than not [I still think this, incidentally]. With no clue for guidance
as to where the nil's soft spot is, it usually works best to give him a few
discards if possible. After all, the cover hand may not know where the nil
is weak, but the niller certainly does! Let him decide. If the 2 sets
you later, so be it [and so it was]. At least the opponents will
have to work to find it. [Sorry pard.]
My verdict: Unfortunate guess.
And that's how we see it. Case dismissed, apologies to South.
Post Mortem
A couple of correspondents brought up some points about Exhibit #11b
that do not directly pertain to the main issue, but are worth discussing
separately. We have some comment on North's decision to bid nil with this
hand, as well as the North hand in last week's #10b.
Purple Cow:
It's worth pointing out that this nil is really quite unsafe in clubs. Any
holding where the 2nd lowest card is the 8 (effectively true since he holds
both the 7 & 8)
is usually more dangerous than it appears. While the
Q2 doubleton from last week is clearly
dangerous, this holding is equally so, though at first glance, it may appear
safer.
CapnCmbk:
I wouldn't hesitate bidding this hand nil unless we had a large lead.
Unsafe or not, here is a situation where a nil bid is almost
mandatory at any score. North has already heard his partner bid 5. If
North does not bid nil, what is his only other option? His hand is
worthless. All he can do is bid 1. How good are his chances of winning his
one trick? Looking at North's hand alone, they are not even as good as making nil. If he fails at a 1-bid, the team 6-bid goes set for a loss
of 60 points. Let him bid nil, risky or not. If the nil is defeated
(and Partner makes his own 5-bid), the team loses only 50 points.
How curious; a failed nil bid is a 10-point improvement over a failed
1-bid. When you further consider that this nil is really not so bad (it
could have been covered), and there is good potential for a large gain, the
nil bid looks a lot better than any other action. Even if Pard goes set
providing successful cover, N/S would still gain 50 points on the deal.
We warmly endorse North's nil bid, and would make that call at any score.
All members of the public are invited to submit their comments
for this week's cases. Go to You Be the Judge.
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