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You Be the Judge



Responses to Last Week's Deals
You Be the Judge #10
Posted June 23, 2002

Score
N/S: 61
E/W: 51
S A1062
H KQ84
D 1062
C 94
S 84
H J9
D A8543
C KJ82
[  ] S J9
H A752
D K97
C AQ105
S KQ753
H 1063
D QJ
C 763

North East South West
3      3       4     2
Exhibit #10a. Technique
The Play:


1. North leads K: A, 3, 9. East wins.
2. East leads 2: 6, J, Q. North wins.
3. North leads 9: 10, 6, 8. East wins.
4. East leads A: 3, 2, 4. East wins.
5. East leads 7: J, A, 2. West wins.
6. West leads K: 2, 5, 7. North wins.
7. North leads A: 9, 3, 4. North wins.
8. North leads 6: J, Q, 8. South wins.
9. South leads 10: 8, 4, 5. South wins.
10. South leads Q: 3, 6, K. East wins.
11-13. East leads Q. N/S win the last three with spades.

Both sides made their bids, the bag going to North-South. At this point a kibitzer says to one of the players: "You missed a set. After winning the...," but he is immediately muted and bounced from the room. The four players pause to study the cards and conclude there was never a chance for a set by either side.

Who was the kibitzer talking to? Was he right, or did he miss something? Submit your e-mail comments to: You Be the Judge

The Public Responds:

The panelists all made short work of the first case (or they could have, if they really wanted to). Everyone was in agreement. Dang! A unanimous panel is not nearly as much fun as differences of opinion. So let us begin. Who made the knucklehead play that cost the set?

Ruffkid: South... [At Trick 10] return a small spade -- not the Queen of dimes -- for an easy dime discard on his pard's 4th heart!

Kloide: At Trick #9 South led the 10... East discarded a dime so South can safely assume he and North contain the rest of the spades.

South (who I'm sure was counting spades) should lead a low spade. This gives North the the lead and the option of playing side suit winnners (if he has them).

In this situation, leading a low spade sets up one more winner for North/South because on the play of a heart by North, South can discard his last diamond loser.

Yes, it's as simple as that. But why should South make this play? Several panelists offer their explanations. Still keeping it simple is Brandon, who goes no further than assuming his partner doesn't have the King of diamonds.

Brandon: The Kibitzer was talking to South: “After winning the 10 on round 9 he should have played a low spade on round 10.” The CRUCIAL play was on round 10. South led the Q and East won it. From South's viewpoint: North bid 3, we saw the KQ for 1, the Spade Ace for 2, and a cut on the third round of clubs. Plus, in the only round of diamonds, the Ace was played. If he had the K he probably would have cashed it when he regained the lead. North probably has four spades, and the opponents the diamond King. South should have led a low spade to enter North’s hand so North could give South a chance to discard the diamond loser.

That's good enough for us. At the table, we only have time for this rapid assessment of the situation: “Our Q is not boss, so let's try something else.”

Two more panelists go deeper into their analyses and, after much brain activity, reach the same conclusion as everyone else. We'll let them ramble:

Dustin: N/S did indeed have the set, but the set required some card reading... and a little luck. At Trick 9, South should survey the situation. West has bid 2 and shown up with the K and A. North, his partner, bid 3 and has shown up with the Ace of spades and the K. East has bid 3 and earlier came up with the A and the A.

South has some thinking to do. What possible scenario could exist for each player's bid? Well, East is most likely out of spades. Even if he were falsecarding with the J, he wouldn't have bid on J109 (of course, he could be falsecarding from J109x, a very unlikely possibility). If East ends up with an original holding of J109x there is nothing that North/South can do to prevent him from winning a spade trick. Thus, the best line of play for South is to play East for the K. The only possibility of a set is if South can throw off his diamond on a heart from North.

Some more information is helpful. North had led the K -- likely because he has some strength in the suit. Thus, South needs to find an entry to North's hand -- a spade. Now the set is complete. The only way this play loses is if East had originally held J109, again an unlikely scenario.

Purple Cow: The kibitzer was speaking to South, and he was right, and missed nothing. Still he got booted. Life is unfair.

"You missed a set. After winning the...," ...10, lead a low spade. North will win and take his top heart (8). South pitches his diamond loser, and happy day.

Now for the fun stuff. Trick 10. With the K still lurking, the Queen is junk. So who has the King (looking at just the South cards)? Well, lets consider partner's bid. North bid 3, and has shown 2, the A, and a high heart. Two possibilities exist for his 3-bid, either the K, or a long spade. So which is it? The long spade of course.

After North cuts with the deuce, and two rounds of spades are played, and everyone follows. That leaves only one spade outstanding from South's point of view. To properly account for the bidding , the original spade distrubution must have been 5-2-4-2, and North has the last spade out (the 10). Everything seen so far seems to confirm this, therefore East is the likely holder of the K.

South's actual play succeeds only if North can ruff the diamond. This is clearly not possible. With North read for exactly four spades, and having shown exactly two clubs, for him to have started with a singleton diamond, would leave six hearts, and there are not that many left.

Now South can't know that North has a winning heart, but he does know for sure that East has the K, and that North can't trump it away. The correct play is to use the (known) spade entry in partner's hand, in the hope that he has a heart winner left for South to shed a diamond on. The chance of this is actually quite slim, but 100% better than the chance of East letting the Q hold Trick 10!

Q.E.D., as the mathematicians say. (Translation: "Duh, right!") So we have identified South as the game's culprit. But it is the Kibitzer who has been brought up on charges. We must find him guilty... of something!

What can we say to someone who has good ideas but doesn't know when to stifle himself? Someone with a know-it-all attitude? Can't keep his mouth shut? Constantly irritates people? Well, we have a solution. The court hereby orders the Kibitzer to be a regular contributor to the Master Spades Forum. Next case.



Exhibit #10b. Strategy
The Play:


1. South leads Q: 10, 5, K. East wins.
2. East leads 6: A, K, J. South wins.
3. South leads 8: 6, 7, J. East wins.
4. East leads 4: 2, A, 3. West wins.
5. West leads 4. 2, K, 6. East wins.
6. East leads 3. J, 8, Q. North wins.

North's nil is sunk. Was it due to bad bidding or play, a bad guess, or was it just bad luck? Who made the worst bid/play? Submit your e-mail comments to:
You Be the Judge

Score
N/S: 112
E/W: 121
S 4
H 7532
C Q2
D J108753
S 976
H A106
C A84
D KQ94
[  ] S QJ52
H KJ94
C K1053
D 6
S AK1083
H Q8
C J976
D A2

South West North East
5      3       nil     3

The Public Responds:

This next case is far more interesting, chiefly because our panelists do not agree. These situations provide us with the most fun. Let us hear from our first panelist, who places most of the blame on South's play, but also takes a light swipe at North's biddding.

Brandon: This is a risky nil I think. There is a decent chance (roughly 4/9) the cover (South) won't have the K or A. The saving grace is South’s long spade suit. Its imperative to break spades quickly so they can be led and give North a chance to discard dangerous cards. Chances are North can decide what's most dangerous to him better than South can. Giving North 1 or 2 discards will ensure most nils. Therefore, instead of discarding the 2, cut with the 3, then lead spades: Ace, King, 10, 8.

Next we hear from someone who lays the entire blame at North's feet.

Ruffkid: Bad club play [by North at] Trick 2...... Granted [South's] throwing the 2 cost the nil, but can you blame that pitch after his pard's J play at Trick 2? Terrible play with a club suit that long. Play the intermediate club and help your pard!

Who would believe that a nil bidder can be accused of a misplay with a perfectly normal throw?! Still, Ruffkid's comments makes sense. This is getting good. Let's keep going. Now let us hear from our next panelist, who puts an entirely different spin on these recent events.

Purple Cow: I'm going to call this a unlucky guess. But there's a lot going on here.

North completed a nil echo on tricks 1 and 3, assuring his partner of complete safety in hearts. The 4 lead at Trick 4, and South knows partner has both the 3 and the 2 left (or he wouldn't have given the nil echo signal). So does he pitch his club, or trump and start spades?

Clearly the winning play here was to start spades. Partner will get a diamond discard on the 2nd spade lead, and the nil walks home. South's 2 is never a factor. North's clubs are solid as they come, but South has no way to know this.

But, it's easy to construct a deal where the opposite is true. Simply switch the 3 & 4 in the N/W hands, and now trumping leaves the nil vulnerable in clubs.

Good point. Ruffkid, if North's clubs were J108754, would you still prefer North throw an intermediate club at Trick 2, suggesting club safety?

Purple Cow: I don't have any mathematical proof to back this up, but I think trumping and getting the spade suit rolling is the better play more often than not. With no clue for guidance as to where the nil's soft spot is, it usually works best to give him a few discards if possible. After all, the cover hand may not know where the nil is weak, but the niller certainly does! Let him decide. If the 2 sets you later, so be it. At least the opponents will have to work to find it.

In this deal, not trumping gave the defenders a roadmap to the set. The pitch of the 2 was undoubtedly what inspired West to try a diamond from A84, hoping to catch a high doubleton in the nil hand. Worked like a charm.

My verdict: Unfortunate guess.

We now hear from our final panelist, who seems to be straddling the fence between "poor South" and "bad South."

Dustin: This hand bothers me because Trick 4 seems to be a pure guess for South. Were there any clues on this hand that partner had trouble in diamonds? The clues are very subtle and I am inclined to simply say this hand was bad luck. But there were some very vague signals.

1. Partner showed a safe heart suit by playing the 5 under the the Queen and the 7 under the eight. This signal must indicate that partner has a minimum of four hearts.

2. Partner likely has a long club suit. Why? Well, first South is holding only two clubs -- a likely sign that partner is long. Second, North played the Jack under the Ace -- another hint that he has a long club suit. This fact isn't a definite one, but rather based on probability.

Thus, if partner has a trouble suit, it is most likely the diamond suit. Additionally, since partner has shown long hearts and clubs, his spade suit is likely short.

These are some very vague signals to guide South. So, we can't be too harsh on him. Only an expert could have made the above deductions.

But don't all Spaders consider themselves experts? Never mind -- we're not going there today.

So there you have it, folks. Among our distinguished panelists there is disagreement, disorder, disarray. And even though we asked for the worst bid or play, no one so much as glanced at our prime candidate for worst play, East's third round of hearts at Trick 4.

So is South guilty? The court is undecided, uncertain, deadlocked. We need more time to consider our verdict in this particularly thorny matter. South's case is put On Hold for one week. South is hereby released on his own recognizance. The court issues South the following instructions for the duration of his probation:

When covering partner's nil bids while holding strong spades, South must always break spades early and run the spades to give a few discards. We'll take up this case again next week. For now, everyone may take the weekend off.


All members of the public are invited to submit their comments
for this week's cases. Go to You Be the Judge.



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