You would like to determine at an early stage of play whether you have a realistic chance to set the opponents. A useful device is to watch for the unexpected trick. If the opponents can win an unexpected trick, say a third-round queen or jack, they are unlikely to be set. There are exceptions to this rule, as the following deal demonstrates.

1095 5 AKQ KQJ732 K8 A9873 J10985 10 AQ6432 J42 432 5 J7 KQ106 76 A9864 South West North East 2 2 4 4 West led the 10

East's underbid is of note. East had planned to bid a 4th-seat 5, but saw that a 4-bid would raise the total to the desired 12 tricks and provide his side with a margin of safety.

North won the club lead and proceeded to win three more top cards, cashing the AKQ. The success of the Q was disheatening for East/West since it represented an unexpected trick for North/South. Nevertheless, North and South still needed two more winners and they were nearly out of ammunition.

North led a heart to West's A, and the heart return was taken by South. But when South tried to cash the A, West trumped and East discarded his last heart. West unblocked the spade suit by playing the K, and then led a heart. East trumped with a small spade and ran the rest of his suit to take the rest.

Although North/South were set, we cannot really fault either player. Their hands suffered from that ol' Spades bugaboo, duplication of values. Even the unexpected trick cannot always overcome such thorough duplication.